Yesterday marked the first anniversary of Lao Hu's stock trading. Lao Hu wrote an article reflecting on and summarizing his one-year experience in the stock market. Over the past year, Lao Hu invested a total of 700,000 yuan and suffered a loss of more than 70,000 yuan, with a loss rate exceeding 10%. Compared with the stock market performance in the past year, this result seems not too bad.

However, Lao Hu's investment performance was achieved on the basis of gradually increasing his position from 100,000 yuan to 700,000 yuan. Ordinary investors usually do not have 700,000 yuan in their accounts, and it is already a big challenge to add positions to two or three hundred thousand yuan, and it is difficult to continue to increase investments. If Lao Hu had not increased his position to 700,000 yuan, his loss rate might have been at least 15%. Therefore, in terms of investment skills, Lao Hu's level of stock trading can only be described as average.

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Lao Hu's main problem in stock investment is that he did not fully recognize the twists and complexities of stock investment, which is a common problem for all investors. In his summary, Lao Hu mentioned: "I was too optimistic and did not fully understand the volatility of the stock market." I think his summary is correct, but his understanding of the stock market's volatility is still insufficient. What he said about "not fully understanding the volatility of the stock market" actually refers more to buying too early. In fact, his problem is far from as simple as "buying too early."

He said in his summary: "I was reluctant to cut my losses, which led to some stocks falling sharply in my hands." This statement shows that he did not realize the complexity of stock market investment. Even if he is willing to cut his losses in the future, can he make money? He thinks too simply about stock investment. Most people who engage in short-term trading ultimately suffer losses, and the main reason for their losses is precisely frequent cutting of losses.

In addition, Lao Hu's understanding of stock market policies is not deep enough, and he knows even less about the mechanisms of stock market rises. Therefore, he said in his summary: "There have been many stock market policies introduced, but due to various factors, the role of these policies in boosting confidence has gradually weakened."

In fact, the stock market policies introduced this year are mainly aimed at "consolidating the foundation and purifying the source." The policies proposed in the new nine articles, such as increasing dividends and increasing buybacks, are long-term major benefits and a good way to boost confidence in the stock market for a long time. However, Lao Hu only saw the short-term market, so he felt that "the role of policies in boosting confidence has gradually weakened." The effect of policy benefits needs some time to take effect, which may be one, two, or even three to five years.

Lao Hu said in his summary: "I firmly believe in value investing, so I allocated more than one-third of my funds to index funds." Is this really a firm belief in value investing? With Lao Hu's novice investment level, if he really believes in value investing, he should invest all his funds in index funds, not just more than one-third. From Lao Hu's previous articles, it can be seen that he is very envious of high selling and low buying in short-term trading, and he has also repeatedly carried out so-called wave operations, and a stock that has made a profit of 10% is likely to be sold by him, and then wait for the stock price to fall before buying it again. Is this value investing?

I am not criticizing Lao Hu, I also came from such a novice period as him. I deliberately published this article to comment on him because he has the commonality of the vast majority of investors. By analyzing and discussing his problems, we can correct the common problems of the vast majority of investors.

The vast majority of investors, like Lao Hu, do not understand value investing, often engage in price difference transactions, but claim to be value investors. They cannot deeply understand stock market policies, often misunderstand and distort policies, leading to insufficient confidence in stock investment. In the final analysis, Lao Hu's main problem is still the low level of investment cognition, which may take many years to gradually improve.

Until now, many investors still cannot truly understand the great significance of the new nine articles, one of the important reasons is that they are all stock market speculators, and the new nine articles discuss the fundamental issues of investment, all are issues of value investing, which have nothing to do with stock market speculation.The "New Nine Measures" is aimed at combating junk stocks, curbing speculative trading, and guiding capital back to blue-chip stocks, thereby creating a positive effect where quality currency drives out inferior currency. As a large number of junk stocks are delisted, this effect will inevitably emerge. The value of blue-chip stocks will inevitably be reflected.

The "New Nine Measures" also enhances the value of blue-chip stocks by encouraging listed companies to increase dividends and buybacks. Excellent companies, through long-term and substantial dividends and buybacks, will inevitably see a significant increase in their value, and their stock prices will also rise significantly. The "New Nine Measures" is a "booster" for blue-chip stocks.

Imagine a stock of an excellent company that continuously pays out large dividends and buybacks every year. Its investment value is increasing, and even without foreign investment, it will be continuously sought after by domestic capital. How could its stock price not rise? The stock prices of dozens or even hundreds of such excellent companies will inevitably bring a long-term bull market to the A-share market. Gold will always shine, and this principle applies worldwide.

The "New Nine Measures" is a strategy to consolidate the foundation and strengthen the source. If implemented in the long term, the A-share market will inevitably see a super bull market. In contrast, Professor Liu Jipeng's proposal this year to let the state push up the stock market to above 4000 points is really a temporary solution that does not address the root cause.

The state can now push up the stock market to 4000 or even 5000 points and maintain high numbers for several years. The rise of the stock market can indeed temporarily promote consumption, but this promotion is based on the rise of the stock market. The state cannot support the stock market forever, and there will eventually come a time when it cannot support it. After all, the funds used by the state to support the market still come from the public, and the state's resources are limited.

When the national team lets go and the stock market falls back, what should stock investors do? Aren't they trapped in a large number again? If people have no money in their hands, won't the economy fall back again? Therefore, Professor Liu's strategy is not feasible and is like drinking poison to quench thirst. It is still necessary to focus on developing the real economy and drive the stock market up through the development of the real economy, which is the fundamental solution to the stock market problem. The current urgent task is to vigorously develop new quality productive forces. The improvement of productive forces can make the country rich and strong, the people prosperous, the performance of listed companies increase, and the stock market can be prosperous and enduring.