Yesterday, the semiconductor sector saw a significant surge, which may be related to the issuance of the national mega-fund, or it could be associated with the strike at Samsung. On May 29th, the Samsung Electronics National Labor Union announced that it would carry out the company's first-ever strike in its history. Should a strike occur at Samsung, it would severely impact the global semiconductor industry chain.

Samsung Electronics is a leading company in the global semiconductor memory field, holding a 50% market share in the memory chip sector worldwide. A production halt by Samsung would undoubtedly affect the global semiconductor industry. Why did a strike occur at Samsung?

Against the backdrop of a downturn in the global semiconductor industry, Samsung Electronics suffered a substantial loss in 2023, amounting to over 80 billion yuan. The employees of Samsung must have felt the economic pressure and put forward demands for wage increases and better welfare benefits, which are difficult to fully meet when the company's performance is poor.

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Moreover, the disagreements over wages and welfare benefits between the labor union and the company have a long history, and this time it was just a tipping point. Therefore, it is challenging for Samsung Electronics to handle this strike well. If not properly managed, the impact on Samsung Electronics' performance would be enormous. From this perspective, Samsung Electronics has reached a point where it must seriously address the labor-capital relationship. In this desperate situation, the strike might actually be effectively resolved.

Due to the possibility of a strike at Samsung Electronics, the market has begun to speculate in anticipation. China has many strong semiconductor manufacturers that can fully replace Samsung Electronics' products, providing an opportunity for China's semiconductor listed companies to achieve a performance explosion.

As a result, chip memory concept stocks such as West Test, Guoke Micro, and Yangfan New Materials have seen significant increases. In fact, these are not the focus. The A-share semiconductor sector has been in a slump for a long time, and new capital entering the semiconductor market to bottom-fish is a more likely occurrence. The semiconductor sector is at a low point in the market, making it worth long-term investors to lay out.

The semiconductor industry is currently in a trough period but is gradually emerging from the trough, showing signs of recovery. In recent years, influenced by factors such as the slowdown of global economic growth, high inflation, and interest rate hikes, the semiconductor industry has entered a down cycle. Starting in 2024, the semiconductor industry has shown certain signs of recovery. Samsung Electronics' revenue and profits in the first quarter of this year have seen double growth.

The massive explosion of artificial intelligence has driven the demand for memory devices, leading to a shortage of overall DRAM. This has brought a turning point for the semiconductor industry in 2024. The development of industries such as new energy vehicles, the Internet of Things, and robotics continues to provide momentum for the development of the semiconductor industry.

In the future, with the reduction of inventory and economic recovery, the semiconductor industry is expected to recover in 2024 or 2025. Now is a great time for long-term layout in the semiconductor sector. As the semiconductor industry belongs to the high-tech industry, with complex technology and rapid updates, ordinary investors will face certain difficulties when analyzing the company's fundamentals. It is recommended to give up stock selection and invest in semiconductor index funds as a better choice.This suddenly made me think of a question - why do people, knowing that investing during an industry trough can yield greater returns, rarely choose to invest during such times? For example, it is clear that 2600 points is a relatively low point, yet few are willing to buy at 2600 points, preferring to buy at 3600 points or even 4600 points.

After some time of repeated contemplation, I understood:

The main reason is that people with high investment awareness and the ability to control their own human nature are always a minority. Buying at a low point seems like a simple thing, but it requires a higher level of investment awareness and better ability to control one's human nature. Therefore, although the principle is simple, few people can actually buy at the bottom.

Taking stock market investment as an example, the vast majority of people do not have the ability to accurately judge when an industry will recover and which companies can survive and prosper after the trough. So even though they suspect that now may be the bottom, they don't have much confidence to buy. Most people in this stock market are amateurs in investment.

Moreover, industries and indices during the trough period are often accompanied by high risks. The human instinct to seek benefits and avoid harm makes many investors unwilling to bear possible capital losses and unwilling to wait for a long time. The herd effect in human nature makes people more willing to follow the crowd, more willing to participate in investment when everyone is entering the market and the market is booming, which makes them feel more secure. Those who can invest without being influenced by human nature are even fewer.

The market is mainly composed of a group of amateurs and people who lack investment rationality. Therefore, the market usually shows a state of madness. If we cannot maintain rationality, we will be infected by market sentiment, and then we are doomed to miss the opportunity to buy at the bottom many times, and we are doomed to be mediocre in the stock market for a lifetime.