Major institutions at home and abroad, including economists and financial influencers, generally believe that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates no later than September this year. This is because some American companies are already overwhelmed, and a group of entrepreneurs led by Tesla CEO Elon Musk have been complaining about the high interest rates in the United States. If the interest rates are not lowered, the U.S. economy may trigger a recession.

Especially recently, the U.S. stock market has experienced a significant adjustment, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate has also depreciated. The market unanimously believes that this is due to the Federal Reserve's late interest rate cut. Therefore, it seems that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is inevitable.

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In view of the recent poor economic data released by the United States, some economists even believe that the United States will not only cut interest rates in the near future but may also cut interest rates by a larger margin than expected to save the economy. I personally think that if the United States cuts interest rates in the near future, it will not only fail to save the stock market but may also indirectly admit the recession of the U.S. economy, leading to further declines in the U.S. stock market.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in the near future is a major event, but its process and outcome are full of uncertainty. Will it really cut interest rates soon? How much will it cut? What impact will it have on the U.S. stock market? All are unknowns. In the final analysis, the most important thing is not whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near future, but whether the U.S. economy can land safely, which is the most fundamental concern of the market.

As long as the U.S. economy does not experience a recession, the U.S. stock market has reason to continue to rise. As long as the U.S. economy does not experience a recession, it doesn't matter whether the United States cuts interest rates in the near future or not. However, can the U.S. economy really avoid a recession? A debt of $35 trillion, significant inflation, excessively high interest rates, political turmoil, and other factors pose a serious threat to the U.S. economy.

Some argue that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still strong because the United States has a lot of innovative technology. But what we see now is that the biggest engine of the U.S. economy, artificial intelligence technology, has started to show problems. The current investment in artificial intelligence technology is huge, but the return is too low.

Due to the United States' unilateral decoupling from China's foreign trade and the blockade of high-tech against China, the performance of high-tech companies such as semiconductors in the United States has been greatly affected, and it has also cultivated strong foreign competitors. In short, the U.S. economy has now shown signs of recession. If it continues to suppress China's economy, it will be counterproductive in the long run, which will accelerate the recession of the U.S. economy.

Take semiconductor chips as an example. If the United States continues not to sell us high-end chips, then China will adhere to independent research and development and mainly produce and use mid-to-low-end chips. Because mid-to-low-end chips are more widely used, the mid-to-low-end chip market will gradually be controlled by China in the future. And the customer base for high-end chips is already small, and in the long run, the high-end chip industry in the United States will face a huge threat.

This is similar to the home appliance industry decades ago, where the overall home appliance market was occupied by Japan and the United States. China mainly produced mid-to-low-end home appliances. Later, due to cost advantages, China's home appliance industry completely defeated American and Japanese home appliance enterprises in the mid-to-low-end home appliance market, making American and Japanese home appliance enterprises increasingly withered in the Chinese market.Now, American and Japanese home appliance companies are not only losing market share in the mid-to-low-end segment, but they are also being increasingly challenged by Chinese home appliance enterprises in terms of high-end product technology. In the high-end market, foreign home appliance companies are also facing severe competition. For example, South Korea's Samsung's high-end panel technology is being challenged by our country's panel companies such as BOE.

In summary, it is highly likely that the United States will cut interest rates in September. With significant events approaching, let's wait and see!