Yesterday, in the article I wrote, I pointed out that the European Union's imposition of additional tariffs on our country's electric vehicles is a bearish news for the electric vehicle sector of the A-share market. A fan friend commented on this, saying: "As of the midday closing, BYD has risen by five points, how can this be endured."

It implies that my prediction was far off the mark. In fact, I should not defend myself. Because cognition is different, there is no point in defending. However, considering that the biggest purpose of my writing articles on the Internet is to awaken investors with insight, I finally responded to the comment:

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I have never claimed to have the ability to predict the rise and fall of the market for the day. If you thought I had this ability in the past, it is because your cognition is too low.

In fact, I not only do not have the ability to predict the rise and fall of the market for the day, but I also do not have the ability to predict the rise and fall of the market for the next month or the next year. Moreover, I believe that no one in this world has this ability! Anyone who tells you that the market or a certain sector or stock will definitely soar on a certain day, month, or year is either foolish or bad, and one of the two must be true.

Many fans have a misconception when reading articles - they think that the more accurate the prediction of the market's rise and fall, the higher the level. I tell everyone that people who really understand investment do not think so. The standard for people who really understand investment to judge the level of investment is to listen to your investment logic.

That is, as long as your investment logic can stand, you are an investment master. It doesn't matter if the result of the market development is inconsistent with the result derived from your logic. On the contrary, if your investment logic is wrong, even if your prediction results are extremely accurate every time, people who understand investment will not think you are a master.

For example, you accurately predicted that a stock would soar tomorrow. The big man asked how you predicted it. What he wants to hear is your logic. As a result, you told him that you dreamed it last night. The big man would generally think of a word in his heart: "Get out."

Your logical reasoning process is wrong, even if the prediction result is correct, it will be considered as a wild guess by professionals. If your logical reasoning process is correct, the arguments are sufficient, and the demonstration is rigorous, professionals will admire you and consider you an investment master. Even if the final market trend is very different from your derivation, professionals will also understand you very much, because they know that the market trend is affected by many complex factors, and it is normal to make mistakes in prediction. Next time, when there is a problem, they are still willing to listen to your opinion again.

Many years ago, the concept of Internet finance in the A-share market was hot, and the new energy vehicle sector was abandoned by the market and kept falling. At this time, a fund manager posted on the online platform and exclaimed: "Is the new energy vehicle not the basic national policy of our country? Will our country not develop new energy vehicles in the future?"At that time, I read the discourse of this fund manager, and I believed his investment logic was very correct. Although the new energy vehicle sector was still falling every day at that time. It was after hearing his call that I started to pay attention to the new energy vehicle sector and eventually made several times the investment return. Now the stock prices of new energy vehicles in A-shares are at least six or seven times that time!

Why is the logic of being bullish on A-shares correct now? Because whether it is from the economic environment or from the market system, or from the valuation of A-shares, A-shares are gradually getting better, and the market is at the bottom, the logic of being bullish on the future of A-shares can stand up to repeated scrutiny.

However, those who are bearish on A-shares cannot find any correct reasoning. Most of them look for evidence from the current low market. But the development of the short-term market is full of uncertainty and is unpredictable. Therefore, those who are bearish on A-shares at the moment are not investment masters, but are real A-share leeks.