In general, the mainstream hotspots of the next bull market have three major characteristics:

1. Not the mainstream hotspots of the last bull market

Historical experience shows that the sectors that soared in the last bull market generally perform poorly or even very poorly in the next bull market. For example, the mainstream hotspots of the great bull market in 2015 were Internet finance, the Belt and Road initiative, and securities stocks. The mainstream hotspots of the bull market in 2021 were the Mao Index, that is, the leading stocks of various industry sectors. Among them, the sectors with the largest increase were medical care, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles. The most popular sectors in the past two years have been those related to artificial intelligence.

The hot sectors of each bull market and even each year are changing. Therefore, staying away from the hottest sectors of the last bull market is a basic investment principle.

2. At the forefront of the era

The hottest sectors of each bull market are those at the forefront of the era. This is not elaborated here.

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3. Explosive performance

This point is actually the most critical. Without the support of performance, even if it becomes the hotspot of the bull market at that time, it will fall sharply soon. We can choose industries and sectors without paying attention to the above two points, but we cannot ignore the performance issues of the industry. The main reason why the new energy sector was so hot in the past few years is that their performance was very good.

It is very difficult to find sectors that meet these three points at the same time. However, we can use the exclusion method to filter out some sectors with a smaller probability of becoming the mainstream hotspots of the next bull market first.

First, exclude the mainstream hotspots of the last bull market:The recent main focus of the A-share market has been primarily concentrated on the artificial intelligence sector. Therefore, artificial intelligence can be ruled out. The next bull market's main focus is unlikely to be artificial intelligence. Although the artificial intelligence industry has a promising outlook over the next ten years, it is difficult to expect a surge in performance in the next three to five years. The only highlight of artificial intelligence at present is that it is at the forefront of the era.

The new energy sector, as a main focus in recent years, includes new energy vehicles and photovoltaic, wind energy, and so on. It is in line with the trend of the times, but will its performance surge in the next few years? I think it's unlikely. I believe that the new energy sector will rise in the next few years, but it is difficult to become the hottest spot. Autonomous driving is a new highlight of new energy vehicles, but will intelligent driving functions become widely popular in the next three to five years? I estimate it will be difficult.

The pharmaceutical industry sector has been declining for many years, and our country has entered an aging society, but I think there is not much possibility of a performance explosion in the next three to five years. The pharmaceutical sector can be invested in as a long-term and slow bull market.

With the steady recovery of our country's economy, the consumer sector is expected to gradually warm up in the next three to five years, and the reform of the consumption tax may make the consumer sector a main focus of the next bull market. The probability of the consumer sector becoming a main focus in the next few years is very high.

The biggest problem with the high dividend sector is that most of their performance is too stable, and there is no explosive power in performance, making it difficult to become the main focus of the market. Some sub-sectors within the high dividend sector may experience a surge in performance due to policy-driven factors. The high dividend sector should be a long-term and slow bull market in the future.

The state-owned enterprise reform sector, with the deepening of state-owned enterprise reforms, the reform of central and local state-owned enterprises, and the expectations of mergers and reorganizations, may become a short-term focus, but the performance foundation is not solid. The greatest probability of this industry sector is to become a slow bull, not an explosive hot spot. State-owned enterprise reform is a long-term process.

Securities stocks in the financial sector often take the lead when market sentiment warms up and trading activity increases. However, the securities sector cannot become the main focus. Although some securities companies will reorganize and merge, it is not significant for becoming a main focus. Due to the main tone of financial risk prevention in our country in the next few years, the securities industry will not have too much reform, and its fundamentals will not change substantially. Therefore, securities are the most excluded sectors.

In summary, it is difficult to accurately predict the hot spots of the next bull market at present. Because the progress of technology and changes in policies often have suddenness, they may trigger a strong bull market, making it difficult for us to predict in advance. For example, last year, artificial intelligence suddenly made a technological leap, which was something we could not predict in advance. As a result, the artificial intelligence sector suddenly became very popular last year.

We can only analyze and judge based on existing policies and technology trends at present. According to the existing policy trends, I think the infrastructure sector may also become one of the hot spots of the next bull market.