The 3000-point fluctuation is actually a good thing!

Introduction

Since the introduction of the new "Nine Measures" this year, the speed at which individual stocks on the A-share market are being labeled as ST has noticeably increased. A friend asked: "After a stock is labeled with ST, is it still possible to remove the ST label in the future? If the ST label is removed, is it possible to become a blue-chip stock afterwards?"

In the history of the A-share market, there have been quite a few stocks that have successfully removed the ST label. Historical data shows that in recent years, the number of companies labeled as ST each year in the A-share market is around 100, and the number of companies that can successfully remove the label each year is around 50, with a removal rate of about 50%.

Advertisement

Generally, the removal of the ST label is achieved through asset restructuring, debt restructuring, performance improvement, and other methods. However, the stock price performance after the removal of the label is often not good, and some even put on the ST label again after many years. Especially after the introduction of the new "Nine Measures," listed companies are more likely to be labeled as ST than before, and the difficulty of removing the label is estimated to increase.

What is the probability of becoming a blue-chip stock after the removal of the ST label?

The probability of becoming a blue-chip stock after the removal of the ST label is very low. Generally, ST companies remove the label through restructuring, asset injection, performance improvement, and other methods, barely returning to normal operations, and it is very rare to become a blue-chip stock.

In my memory, only Shede Liquor has become a blue-chip stock after the removal of the ST label. The reason why Shede became a blue-chip stock after the removal of the label is mainly because its original fundamentals were good. Shede was labeled as ST because its funds were occupied by the controlling shareholder, and later, after the controlling shareholder returned the funds, Shede Liquor was able to remove the label.

Therefore, at that time, Shede's fundamentals were still acceptable, coupled with a considerable amount of old liquor in stock, the room for future performance improvement was not small, and it also caught a bull market in liquor stocks, so Shede Liquor could become a blue-chip stock at that time.

However, the vast majority of companies labeled as ST do not have such good fundamentals as Shede Liquor. It is already very difficult to remove the hat, and generally, the later performance is mediocre.

From this, it can be seen that listed companies, like our lives, are easy to go from good to bad, but it is difficult to go from bad to good. The overall transformation of listed companies from "ugly ducklings" to "phoenixes" is a low-probability event. The world is full of vicissitudes, staying away from bad people, staying away from poor-performing stocks, making friends with good people, and embracing industry-leading companies is the essence of investment.Today's A-share market was yet another day that made people feel drowsy. During the day, I took a few glances at the market while basking in the sun with my mother, and I added a little more to the liquor index fund before the market closed, in order to prevent the liquor sector from continuing to fall, so the amount I bought today was quite small. If there are no surprises this month, I will still have one or two more times to add to the liquor or consumer sectors.

On the surface, the market has not risen for a long time, and there seems to be no money-making effect, which seems to be a bad thing. However, from another perspective, the market has been fluctuating around 3,000 points, which has also given us a lot of time to add positions slowly at low levels. The more the market fluctuates for a month, the more stocks we can buy at low levels for a month. If the market fluctuates for 10 months, we can buy at least tens of thousands of yuan more funds at low levels, isn't that a good thing?

The main reason why many people think that the market not continuing to rise is a bad thing is that they are too eager to make money. They don't understand that stock investment is like farming and planting trees, and a bumper harvest requires several years of accumulation. The more seeds sown at low levels, the more harvests there will be in the future.

For example, in May, the A-share real estate sector rose sharply due to the introduction of new real estate policies, but the probability of the real estate sector continuing to rise sharply in June is extremely small. This is because the effects of real estate policies require a certain amount of time to accumulate, and the recovery of the real estate market in all countries requires at least one to two years. It is also unlikely that China's real estate industry will undergo significant changes immediately. Therefore, given the slow recovery of the real estate industry, we should not have too high expectations for the trend of the real estate sector in June.

Patience is the right way to invest. Changes in the market environment and the inflow of funds require a longer time process. The trend of the market is not determined by our will. "Man proposes, God disposes" is a correct investment attitude.

Comments